Emergent Behaviours (And Culture) Are Patterned But Not Predictable

3 min read
Feb 25, 2025 12:30:00 PM

Most people crave predictability in their organisations. It’s a natural human instinct to want control and structure, and many believe that achieving this would simplify the challenges of leadership. We plan strategies, set goals, and create processes, all based on the assumption that these efforts will lead to predictable results. However, anyone with organisational experience knows this rarely holds true - reality is far messier than even the most carefully crafted plans.

Organisations are complex, evolving systems, and their behaviours often emerge in ways we can’t fully control or predict. Think of it like weather patterns: meteorologists can identify general trends but can’t forecast precisely where lightning will strike. Similarly, in organisations, we can observe recurring behaviours such as the energy boost after pay reviews, the mid-year slump, or the year-end rush- but these patterns are not fixed. Instead, they emerge from countless interactions and shifting contextual factors that are impossible to fully map or understand.

Rather than seeing this unpredictability as a barrier, it’s more useful to view it as an opportunity. By embracing the emergent nature of organisational behaviour, leaders can unlock powerful possibilities for growth and transformation. Let’s explore how.

The Trouble With Engineering Change

When faced with undesirable patterns, the instinct is often to “fix” them through top-down directives or rigid new processes. However, organisations are more like gardens than construction sites. Culture change, much like plant growth, cannot be forced. What leaders can do is create the conditions that encourage positive development.

Consider the work of a skilled gardener. They study their soil, understand the climate, and adapt to local conditions, working with the environment rather than trying to control it. In the same way, effective leaders observe their organisation’s dynamics to identify what shapes behaviour. Questions like these can be revealing:

  • What informal networks carry the most information?
  • How are decisions really made?
  • What unwritten norms influence people’s actions?

Often, top-down interventions clash with these underlying patterns, leading to friction or resistance. Instead, leaders should focus on cultivating the “soil” of their organisations. By fostering an environment that supports the desired behaviours, change can emerge more naturally and sustainably.

Working With Patterns: Small Steps, Big Learning

To influence behaviours in your organisation—and by extension, its culture—it helps to start small and stay observant. Here’s how:

Notice Current Patterns

Identify not just the obvious trends but also subtle rhythms in how work gets done. Look for unspoken norms and informal behaviours that shape the flow of tasks and decisions.

Get Curious

Ask what influences these patterns. Power dynamics, informal relationships, the physical workspace, meeting schedules, and external factors like market trends all play a role.

Embrace Uncertainty

Accept that you’ll never have complete information. Complexity means ambiguity, and that’s okay. You can–and should–still act, despite not knowing for sure.

Run Small Experiments

Instead of imposing sweeping changes, try safe-to-fail experiments. Make minor adjustments and watch how the system responds. This approach reduces risk while allowing you to learn what works.

Stay Flexible

Be open to learning from unexpected outcomes. The goal isn’t to stick rigidly to a plan but to adapt as new information emerges.

Using the gardening metaphor again, this process is about preparing the soil and creating conditions where growth can thrive. You may not control exactly what grows, but you can nurture an environment that encourages positive outcomes.

Tools and Practices To Understand Patterns

To work effectively with emergent patterns, leaders need tools that provide insights into the organisation’s hidden dynamics. Here are some methods:

  • Network Mapping: Visualise informal communication channels and power structures.
  • Ethnographic Studies: Observe day-to-day behaviours to uncover unspoken norms. Narrative research as a distributed ethnographic approach can generate large datasets that give deep insight.
  • Behavioural Data Analysis: Use analytics to detect trends and patterns that may not be immediately obvious.

These tools help leaders see the reality of how their organisation operates, which is essential for making informed, adaptive decisions. Surveys and tools such as NPS (Net Promoter Score) frequently don’t reflect the actual lived experience of the organisation, so tend to be misleading.

This approach isn’t limited to culture change. It’s equally relevant for innovation, conflict resolution, and strategic planning. By focusing on emergent patterns and small, adaptive changes, leaders can find solutions that feel natural and sustainable rather than forced. Frequently, these solutions take fewer resources and persist longer by following the grain of the organisation.

The Hidden Power Of Complexity

Emergent behaviours may seem unpredictable, but they aren’t random. They arise from countless small interactions influenced by local conditions. Leaders who embrace this complexity—and work with it rather than against it—can achieve profound organisational impact. The key is to stay curious, experiment, and adapt.

The next time you face a challenge in your organisation, resist the urge to impose control. Instead, observe, experiment, and adapt to what emerges. You may discover that the very messiness of complexity holds the seeds for meaningful transformation.

A Fresh Perspective

If you are looking to break endless cycles and breathe fresh energy into your organisation, a different approach can help. To begin expanding how you look at emergent behaviour in your organisation, contact me today.

Subscribe by email

Get Email Notifications