Emergent Behaviours (And Culture) Are Patterned But Not Predictable
Most people crave predictability in their organisations. It’s a natural human instinct to want control and structure, and many believe that achieving this would simplify the challenges of leadership. We plan strategies, set goals, and create processes, all based on the assumption that these efforts will lead to predictable results. However, anyone with organisational experience knows this rarely holds true - reality is far messier than even the most carefully crafted plans.
Organisations are complex, evolving systems, and their behaviours often emerge in ways we can’t fully control or predict. Think of it like weather patterns: meteorologists can identify general trends but can’t forecast precisely where lightning will strike. Similarly, in organisations, we can observe recurring behaviours such as the energy boost after pay reviews, the mid-year slump, or the year-end rush- but these patterns are not fixed. Instead, they emerge from countless interactions and shifting contextual factors that are impossible to fully map or understand.
Rather than seeing this unpredictability as a barrier, it’s more useful to view it as an opportunity. By embracing the emergent nature of organisational behaviour, leaders can unlock powerful possibilities for growth and transformation. Let’s explore how.
The Trouble With “Engineering” Change
When faced with undesirable patterns, the instinct is often to “fix” them through top-down directives or rigid new processes. However, organisations are more like gardens than construction sites. Culture change, much like plant growth, cannot be forced. What leaders can do is create the conditions that encourage positive development.
Consider the work of a skilled gardener. They study their soil, understand the climate, and adapt to local conditions, working with the environment rather than trying to control it. In the same way, effective leaders observe their organisation’s dynamics to identify what shapes behaviour. Questions like these can be revealing:
- What informal networks carry the most information?
- How are decisions really made?
- What unwritten norms influence people’s actions?
Often, top-down interventions clash with these underlying patterns, leading to friction or resistance. Instead, leaders should focus on cultivating the “soil” of their organisations. By fostering an environment that supports the desired behaviours, change can emerge more naturally and sustainably.
Working With Patterns: Small Steps, Big Learning
To influence behaviours in your organisation—and by extension, its culture—it helps to start small and stay observant. Here’s how:
Notice Current Patterns
Identify not just the obvious trends but also subtle rhythms in how work gets done. Look for unspoken norms and informal behaviours that shape the flow of tasks and decisions.
Get Curious
Ask what influences these patterns. Power dynamics, informal relationships, the physical workspace, meeting schedules, and external factors like market trends all play a role.
Embrace Uncertainty
Accept that you’ll never have complete information. Complexity means ambiguity, and that’s okay. You can–and should–still act, despite not knowing for sure.
Run Small Experiments
Instead of imposing sweeping changes, try safe-to-fail experiments. Make minor adjustments and watch how the system responds. This approach reduces risk while allowing you to learn what works.
Stay Flexible
Be open to learning from unexpected outcomes. The goal isn’t to stick rigidly to a plan but to adapt as new information emerges.
Using the gardening metaphor again, this process is about preparing the soil and creating conditions where growth can thrive. You may not control exactly what grows, but you can nurture an environment that encourages positive outcomes.
Tools and Practices To Understand Patterns
To work effectively with emergent patterns, leaders need tools that provide insights into the organisation’s hidden dynamics. Here are some methods:
- Network Mapping: Visualise informal communication channels and power structures.
- Ethnographic Studies: Observe day-to-day behaviours to uncover unspoken norms. Narrative research as a distributed ethnographic approach can generate large datasets that give deep insight.
- Behavioural Data Analysis: Use analytics to detect trends and patterns that may not be immediately obvious.
These tools help leaders see the reality of how their organisation operates, which is essential for making informed, adaptive decisions. Surveys and tools such as NPS (Net Promoter Score) frequently don’t reflect the actual lived experience of the organisation, so tend to be misleading.
This approach isn’t limited to culture change. It’s equally relevant for innovation, conflict resolution, and strategic planning. By focusing on emergent patterns and small, adaptive changes, leaders can find solutions that feel natural and sustainable rather than forced. Frequently, these solutions take fewer resources and persist longer by following the grain of the organisation.
The Hidden Power Of Complexity
Emergent behaviours may seem unpredictable, but they aren’t random. They arise from countless small interactions influenced by local conditions. Leaders who embrace this complexity—and work with it rather than against it—can achieve profound organisational impact. The key is to stay curious, experiment, and adapt.
The next time you face a challenge in your organisation, resist the urge to impose control. Instead, observe, experiment, and adapt to what emerges. You may discover that the very messiness of complexity holds the seeds for meaningful transformation.
A Fresh Perspective
If you are looking to break endless cycles and breathe fresh energy into your organisation, a different approach can help. To begin expanding how you look at emergent behaviour in your organisation, contact me today.
- Narrative (100)
- Organisational culture (96)
- Communications (93)
- Complexity (77)
- SenseMaker (77)
- Changing organisations (42)
- Cognitive Edge (37)
- Narrate news (35)
- narrative research (34)
- Cognitive science (25)
- Tools and techniques (25)
- Conference references (24)
- Recommendations (20)
- datespecific (20)
- Leadership (17)
- Employee engagement (16)
- Storytelling (15)
- Culture (13)
- Events (11)
- UNDP (11)
- Cynefin (10)
- hints and tips (10)
- internal communications (8)
- Engagement (7)
- Knowledge (6)
- M&E (6)
- culture change (6)
- customer insight (6)
- tony quinlan (6)
- Branding (5)
- Changing organisations (5)
- Stories (5)
- Children of the World (4)
- Dave Snowden (4)
- Courses (3)
- GirlHub (3)
- Medinge (3)
- Travel (3)
- anecdote circles (3)
- corporate culture (3)
- development (3)
- knowledge management (3)
- merger (3)
- micro-narratives (3)
- monitoring and evaluation (3)
- presentations (3)
- BRAC (2)
- Bratislava (2)
- Egypt (2)
- ILO (2)
- Narattive research (2)
- Roma (2)
- Uncategorized (2)
- VECO (2)
- case study (2)
- citizen engagement (2)
- counter-terrorism (2)
- customer satisfaction (2)
- diversity (2)
- governance (2)
- impact measurement (2)
- innovation (2)
- masterclass (2)
- melcrum (2)
- monitoring (2)
- narrate (2)
- organisation culture (2)
- organisational storytelling (2)
- research (2)
- sensemaker case study (2)
- sensemaking (2)
- social networks (2)
- speaker (2)
- strategic narrative (2)
- strategy (2)
- workshops (2)
- 2012 Olympics (1)
- Adam Curtis (1)
- Allders of Sutton (1)
- Attitudes (1)
- CASE (1)
- Cabinets and the Bomb (1)
- Central Library (1)
- Chernobyl (1)
- Christmas (1)
- Disaster relief (1)
- Duncan Green (1)
- ESRC (1)
- Employee surveys (1)
- European commission (1)
- Fail-safe (1)
- Financial Times anecdote circles SenseMaker (1)
- FlashForward (1)
- Fragments of Impact (1)
- Future Backwards (1)
- GRU (1)
- Girl Research Unit (1)
- House of Lords (1)
- Huffington Post (1)
- IQPC (1)
- Jordan (1)
- Joshua Cooper Ramo (1)
- KM (1)
- KMUK2010 (1)
- Kharian and Box (1)
- LFI (1)
- LGComms (1)
- Lant Pritchett (1)
- Learning From Incidents (1)
- Lords Speaker lecture (1)
- MLF (1)
- MandE (1)
- Montenegro (1)
- Mosaic (1)
- NHS (1)
- ODI (1)
- OTI (1)
- Owen Barder (1)
- PR (1)
- Peter Hennessy (1)
- Pfizer (1)
- Protected Areas (1)
- Rwanda (1)
- SenseMaker® collector ipad app (1)
- Serbia (1)
- Sir Michael Quinlan (1)
- Slides (1)
- Speaking (1)
- Sutton (1)
- TheStory (1)
- UK justice (1)
- USS vincennes (1)
- United Nations Development Programme (1)
- Washington storytelling (1)
- acquisition (1)
- adaptive management (1)
- afghanistan (1)
- aid and development (1)
- al-qaeda (1)
- algeria (1)
- all in the mind (1)
- anthropology (1)
- applications (1)
- back-story (1)
- better for less (1)
- change communications (1)
- change management (1)
- citizen experts (1)
- communication (1)
- communications research (1)
- complaints (1)
- complex adaptive systems (1)
- complex probes (1)
- conference (1)
- conferences (1)
- conspiracy theories (1)
- consultation (1)
- content management (1)
- corporate values (1)
- counter narratives (1)
- counter-insurgency (1)
- counter-narrative (1)
- creativity (1)
- customer research (1)
- deresiewicz (1)
- deterrence (1)
- dissent (1)
- downloads (1)
- education (1)
- employee (1)
- ethical audit (1)
- ethics (1)
- evaluation (1)
- facilitation (1)
- fast company (1)
- feedback loops (1)
- financial services (1)
- financial times (1)
- four yorkshiremen (1)
- gary klein (1)
- georgia (1)
- girl effect (1)
- girleffect (1)
- giving voice (1)
- globalgiving (1)
- harnessing complexity (1)
- impact evaluation (1)
- impact measures (1)
- information overload (1)
- informatology (1)
- innovative communications (1)
- john kay (1)
- justice (1)
- kcuk (1)
- keynote (1)
- leadership recession communication (1)
- learning (1)
- libraries (1)
- likert scale (1)
- lucifer effect (1)
- marketing (1)
- minimum level of failure (1)
- narrative capture (1)
- narrative sensemaker internal communications engag (1)
- natasha mitchell (1)
- navigating complexity (1)
- new york times (1)
- newsletter (1)
- obliquity (1)
- organisation (1)
- organisational development (1)
- organisational memory (1)
- organisational narrative (1)
- patterns (1)
- pilot projects (1)
- placement (1)
- policy-making (1)
- population research (1)
- presentation (1)
- protocols of the elders of zion. (1)
- public policy (1)
- public relations (1)
- qualitative research (1)
- quangos (1)
- relations (1)
- reputation management (1)
- resilience (1)
- revenge (1)
- ritual dissent (1)
- road signs (1)
- safe-fail (1)
- safe-to-fail experiments (1)
- sales improvement (1)
- satisfaction (1)
- scaling (1)
- seminar (1)
- seth godin (1)
- social coherence (1)
- social cohesion (1)
- solitude (1)
- stakeholder understanding (1)
- strategic communications management (1)
- suggestion schemes (1)
- surveys (1)
- survivorship bias (1)
- targets (1)
- tbilisi (1)
- the future backwards (1)
- tipping point (1)
- training (1)
- twitter (1)
- upskilling (1)
- values (1)
- video (1)
- voices (1)
- weak links (1)
- zeno's paradox (1)
- February 2025 (3)
- January 2025 (1)
- November 2024 (1)
- October 2024 (1)
- September 2024 (2)
- March 2020 (1)
- November 2019 (1)
- August 2019 (1)
- May 2019 (2)
- April 2019 (1)
- November 2018 (2)
- May 2018 (2)
- March 2018 (1)
- February 2018 (1)
- December 2017 (1)
- October 2017 (3)
- September 2017 (1)
- July 2017 (1)
- March 2016 (1)
- February 2016 (1)
- January 2016 (1)
- July 2015 (3)
- May 2015 (1)
- March 2015 (2)
- February 2015 (1)
- December 2014 (1)
- November 2014 (1)
- September 2014 (3)
- August 2014 (1)
- July 2014 (2)
- June 2014 (6)
- May 2014 (3)
- April 2014 (3)
- March 2014 (5)
- January 2014 (4)
- December 2013 (2)
- October 2013 (1)
- August 2013 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- May 2013 (1)
- March 2013 (1)
- January 2013 (2)
- November 2012 (2)
- October 2012 (4)
- September 2012 (3)
- November 2011 (3)
- August 2011 (1)
- July 2011 (1)
- May 2011 (4)
- April 2011 (3)
- March 2011 (4)
- February 2011 (8)
- January 2011 (8)
- December 2010 (2)
- November 2010 (5)
- October 2010 (8)
- September 2010 (5)
- August 2010 (2)
- June 2010 (1)
- April 2010 (2)
- January 2010 (1)
- December 2009 (2)
- November 2009 (3)
- October 2009 (1)
- January 2009 (1)
- July 2008 (4)
- June 2008 (1)
- March 2008 (2)
- January 2008 (3)
- November 2007 (4)
- October 2007 (1)
- September 2007 (1)
- August 2007 (4)
- May 2007 (3)
- March 2007 (1)
- February 2007 (6)
- January 2007 (3)
- November 2006 (8)
- October 2006 (8)
- September 2006 (2)
- August 2006 (5)
- July 2006 (13)
Subscribe by email
You May Also Like
These Related Stories

Why Embracing Culture Change Can Help To Build Healthier Organisations
